The Dynamic Effects of Weather Shocks on Agricultural Production
Résumé
This paper investigates the dynamic effects of weather shocks on monthly agricultural production in Peru, using a Local Projection framework. An adverse weather shock, measured by an excess of heat or rain, always generates a delayed negative downturn in agricultural production. The magnitude and duration of this downturn depend on several factors, including the type of crop and the timing of the shock. On average, a weather shock—a temperature shock—can cause a monthly decline of 5% to 15% in agricultural production. The response exhibit important heterogeneity across time, crop, and season dimensions, with hysteresis suggesting farmers’ adaptation over time. At the macroeconomic level, weather shocks are recessionary and entail a decline in inflation, agricultural production, exports, exchange rate and GDP.
