Chapter 457. Belief function theory based decision support methods: Application to torrent protection work effectiveness and reliability assessment

Simon Carladous 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 Jean-Marc Tacnet 2 J. Dezert 7 Mireille Batton-Hubert 3, 6, 4, 5
1 AgroParisTech
2 UR ETGR - Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches
3 DEMO-ENSMSE - Département Décision en Entreprise : Modélisation, Optimisation
4 Mines Saint-Étienne MSE - École des Mines de Saint-Étienne
5 FAYOL-ENSMSE - Institut Henri Fayol
6 LIMOS - Laboratoire d'Informatique, de Modélisation et d'Optimisation des Systèmes
7 ONERA - The French Aerospace Lab [Palaiseau]
Abstract : Civil engineering protection works mitigate natural risks in mountains, such as torrents. Analysing their effectiveness at several scales is an essential issue in the risk management. Based on expert knowledge, used methods have been developed under risky environment. However, decision is made under uncertainty because of 1) the lack of information and knowledge on natural phenomena and 2) the het- erogeneity of available information and 3) the reliability of sources. In this paper, we propose to help decision-makers with advanced multicriteria decision making methods (MCDMs). Combining classical MCDM approaches, belief function, fuzzy sets and possibility theories, they make it possible decisions based on heterogeneous, imprecise and uncertain evaluation of criteria provided by more or less reliable sources in an uncertain context. COWA-ER (Cautious Ordered Weighted Averaging with Evidential Reasoning), Fuzzy-Cautious OWA or ER-MCDA (Evidential Reasoning for Multi Criteria Decision Analysis) are thus applied to several scales of effectiveness assessment.
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https://hal-emse.ccsd.cnrs.fr/emse-01311574
Contributor : Florent Breuil <>
Submitted on : Wednesday, May 4, 2016 - 2:18:52 PM
Last modification on : Friday, May 10, 2019 - 10:02:03 AM

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EMSE | DEMO-ENSMSE | FAYOL-ENSMSE | IRSTEA | TDS-MACS | INSTITUT-TELECOM | LIMOS | PRES_CLERMONT | AGROPARISTECH | ONERA | UNIV-PARIS-SACLAY

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Simon Carladous, Jean-Marc Tacnet, J. Dezert, Mireille Batton-Hubert. Chapter 457. Belief function theory based decision support methods: Application to torrent protection work effectiveness and reliability assessment. Luca Podofillini, Bruno Sudret, Bozidar Stojadinovic, Enrico Zio, Wolfgang Kröger. Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems, CRC Press, pp.Pages 3643-3652, 2015, ESREL 2015, 978-1-315-64841-5. ⟨10.1201/b19094-479⟩. ⟨http://www.crcnetbase.com/doi/book/10.1201/b19094⟩. ⟨emse-01311574⟩

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