Chapter 457. Belief function theory based decision support methods: Application to torrent protection work effectiveness and reliability assessment

Simon Carladous 1, 2, 3 Jean-Marc Tacnet 2 J. Dezert 4 Mireille Batton-Hubert 3, 5
1 AgroParisTech
2 UR ETGR - Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches
3 DEMO-ENSMSE - Département Décision en Entreprise : Modélisation, Optimisation
4 Palaiseau - ONERA - The French Aerospace Lab
5 LIMOS - Laboratoire d'Informatique, de Modélisation et d'optimisation des Systèmes
Abstract : Civil engineering protection works mitigate natural risks in mountains, such as torrents. Analysing their effectiveness at several scales is an essential issue in the risk management. Based on expert knowledge, used methods have been developed under risky environment. However, decision is made under uncertainty because of 1) the lack of information and knowledge on natural phenomena and 2) the het- erogeneity of available information and 3) the reliability of sources. In this paper, we propose to help decision-makers with advanced multicriteria decision making methods (MCDMs). Combining classical MCDM approaches, belief function, fuzzy sets and possibility theories, they make it possible decisions based on heterogeneous, imprecise and uncertain evaluation of criteria provided by more or less reliable sources in an uncertain context. COWA-ER (Cautious Ordered Weighted Averaging with Evidential Reasoning), Fuzzy-Cautious OWA or ER-MCDA (Evidential Reasoning for Multi Criteria Decision Analysis) are thus applied to several scales of effectiveness assessment.
Type de document :
Chapitre d'ouvrage
Luca Podofillini, Bruno Sudret, Bozidar Stojadinovic, Enrico Zio, Wolfgang Kröger. Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems, CRC Press pp.Pages 3643-3652, 2015, ESREL 2015, 978-1-315-64841-5. 〈10.1201/b19094-479〉. 〈http://www.crcnetbase.com/doi/book/10.1201/b19094〉
Liste complète des métadonnées
https://hal-emse.ccsd.cnrs.fr/emse-01311574
Contributeur : Florent Breuil <>
Soumis le : mercredi 4 mai 2016 - 14:18:52
Dernière modification le : mercredi 28 mars 2018 - 14:18:17

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EMSE | DEMO-ENSMSE | FAYOL-ENSMSE | IRSTEA | TDS-MACS | LIMOS | PRES_CLERMONT | AGROPARISTECH | SIGMA-CLERMONT | ONERA | UNIV-PARIS-SACLAY

Citation

Simon Carladous, Jean-Marc Tacnet, J. Dezert, Mireille Batton-Hubert. Chapter 457. Belief function theory based decision support methods: Application to torrent protection work effectiveness and reliability assessment. Luca Podofillini, Bruno Sudret, Bozidar Stojadinovic, Enrico Zio, Wolfgang Kröger. Safety and Reliability of Complex Engineered Systems, CRC Press pp.Pages 3643-3652, 2015, ESREL 2015, 978-1-315-64841-5. 〈10.1201/b19094-479〉. 〈http://www.crcnetbase.com/doi/book/10.1201/b19094〉. 〈emse-01311574〉

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